The outlook also indicates that total revenues in 2024 are projected to grow by 7.6% annually, reaching a record USD964 billion. Expenses are expected to grow at a slightly lower rate of 6.9%, totaling USD914 billion. A historic high of 4.7 billion people is expected to travel in 2024, surpassing the pre-pandemic level of 4.5 billion recorded in 2019.
GLOLooking ahead, the airline industry is projected to see net profits of USD25.7 billion in 2024, representing a modest improvement from the expected USD23.3 billion net profit in 2023. However, the net profit margin is forecasted to be 2.7% in 2024, slightly higher than the 2.6% margin projected for 2023.
In both 2023 and 2024, the return on invested capital is expected to lag behind the cost of capital by four percentage points, influenced by rising global interest rates responding to inflationary pressures. Operating profits for the airline industry are anticipated to increase from USD40.7 billion in 2023 to USD49.3 billion in 2024.
The outlook also indicates that total revenues in 2024 are projected to grow by 7.6% annually, reaching a record USD964 billion. Expenses are expected to grow at a slightly lower rate of 6.9%, totaling USD914 billion. A historic high of 4.7 billion people is expected to travel in 2024, surpassing the pre-pandemic level of 4.5 billion recorded in 2019.
IATA’s Director General, Willie Walsh, acknowledged the industry’s resilience, attributing the expected USD25.7 billion net profit in 2024 to aviation’s ability to bounce back to pre-pandemic levels of connectivity. Despite the extraordinary recovery speed, Walsh noted that the pandemic has set aviation back by approximately four years of growth.
The outlook drivers for 2024 include overall revenue growth outpacing expenses, resulting in strengthened profitability. Operating profits are expected to increase by 21.1%, while net profit margins are forecasted to increase by 10%, primarily due to anticipated higher interest rates in 2024. Industry revenues are projected to reach a historic high of USD964 billion, with an inventory of 40.1 million flights available, surpassing the 2019 level. Passenger revenues are expected to reach USD717 billion in 2024, reflecting a 12% increase from 2023. Despite the recovery in demand, 2024 is anticipated to mark the end of the dramatic year-on-year increases seen in the 2021-2023 recovery period.
Due to persistent supply chain issues limiting capacity, high travel demand is supporting yield growth, with passenger yields expected to improve by 1.8% in 2024 compared to 2023. Efficiency levels remain high, with the load factor projected to be 82.6% in 2024, slightly better than 2023 and consistent with 2019 levels.
Source: IATA
